2023 Airdrie Real Estate Market Predictions

SALES

We had 2469 sales within the past year here in Airdrie and in my 2021 predicted that we would have around 2500. I ended up being not too far off with that guess and that sales number ended up being a new all time record for the city. Moving into 2023, I think we're going to start tapering off a bit with our sales and experience about 20% less than this last year. So, I'm going to predict that we're going to be looking at about 2000 sales in 2023.

The reason I'm expecting less sales is because in 2022 during all the craziness, we had so many people who were waiting for the right time to list take advantage of the spring market. Everybody seemed to hop on the band wagon, with a number of people who owned rental properties deciding to sell. Now, most of the on the fence sellers who were holding off have been kind off weeded out and I think we'll be seeing sellers that are truly just making a move. My lower sales prediction isn't really a reflection of lower demand necessarily, but more of a lower supply.

MARKET FLOW

If you remember last year, pretty much as soon as January hit activity levels skyrocketed and prices jumped up as well. That high demand and low supply market lasted from January to April and then things started to settle down.

This year I think we're going to return to typical seasonal market trends, where we start 2023 slower and ramp up for the spring busy season, before we taper off for the summer. I still think our "spring" is going to hit a little sooner than you'd expect, March to May or March to June. When this occurs I do think things will get fairly tight in the market, with not enough new listings to sustain our local demand and interprovincial demand.

For the rest of the year from about that June/July to August timeframe onward, I think we'll see a similar situation to 2022, where we shift to a more balanced market to end 2023.

PRICES

My prediction in 2022 was that we would see a 15% price increase for detached and semi detached homes and row homes lagging behind a tad at 12%. The accuracy of those predictions really depends on which part of the year you're looking at for that year over year price change.

If you look at our peak prices in the spring, our detached and semi detached were both up over 30% year over year and our townhomes were at about 23%. If you look at where they were at the end of the year, detached were up about 14% year over year, semi detached up 12%, and townhomes were up about 21%.

Although I'm predicting a lower sales number and a more balanced market, I'm actually not predicting lower prices. This goes back to our supply, those new listings coming on the market being lower what we need. So, for prices I'm expecting a similar story to 2022 but on a way less of a scale. Right now prices are going down just a bit each month, but I think we'll see them tick back up in the spring 5-6%, then decrease to end 2023 with maybe an increase of 3% or 4% as an average across all styles of housing.

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- Brad Walker